On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

The Heat Equation with Initial Data Corrupted by Measurement Error and Missing Data

In this work the Cauchy problem for the one-dimensional heat equation is considered. In contrast to existing literature it is assumed that the initial state f is unknown and that information regarding f is obtained by some process of measurement. To enhance realism, both measurement errors and missing data are allowed for. Under assumptions on f in the Fourier-domain first an approximation to f is derived from the data by means of a novel uncertainty principle. Then, it is studied how this perturbation in the initial state propagates with time.      

Tomographic reconstruction using heuristic Monte Carlo methods

A tomographic reconstruction method based on Monte Carlo random searching guided by the information contained in the projections of radiographed objects is presented. In order to solve the optimization problem, a multiscale algorithm is proposed to reduce computation. The reconstruction is performed in a coarse-to-fine multigrid scale that initializes each resolution level with the reconstruction of the previous coarser level, which substantially improves the performance. The method was applied to a real case reconstructing the internal structure of a small metallic object with internal components, showing excellent results.     

Polyaniline/12-phosphotungstic acid/V<Subscript>2</Subscript>O<Subscript>5</Subscript> nanocomposite and its platinum analog as oxygen reduction electrocatalysts

A guest-host nanocomposite based on electroconducting polyaniline doped with 12-phosphotungstic acid and V₂O₅ as well as its bifunctional analog containing not more than 5 mass% nanosized platinum were obtained. A study was carried out on the structure of these nanocomposites, their redox characteristics, and electrocatalytic activity in the reduction of oxygen. These nanocomposites were found to display catalytic properties in the electrochemical reduction of oxygen, while the presence of even a slight amount of nanosized platinum in the bifunctional composite leads to a significant increase in its electrocatalytic activity. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i éksperimental’naya Khimiya, Vol. 43, No. 5, pp. 307–314, September–October, 2007.     

Exciton Molecules in Quantum Wells: Influence of the Well Width Fluctuations

The influence of the well width fluctuations on the dependence of the binding energy of excitonic complexes in quantum wells is studied by using the path-integral Monte-Carlo technique. The results are compared with available experimental data and a good agreement is found.Postdoctoral researcher of FWO-Vlaanderen     

Numerical simulation of thermally and chemically nonequilibrium flows and heat transfer in underexpanded induction plasmatron jets

The results of numerical simulation are presented for thermally and chemically nonequilibrium air plasma flows in a plasmatron discharge channel and underexpanded dissociated and partially ionized air jets flowing past a cylindrical model with a blunt leading edge and cooled copper surface under the experimental conditions realized in a VGU-4 100 kW induction plasmatron (Institute for Problems in Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) (see, for example, [1, 2]). The nonequilibrium excitation of the vibrational degrees of freedom of the molecules in the modal approximation and the difference between the electron and translational heavy-particle temperatures are taken into account in the calculations. The calculated data on the heat transfer and pressure at the stagnation point are compared with the results obtained within the framework of the thermally equilibrium model. Comparison with the experimental data obtained in the Institute for Problem in Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Laboratory for interaction between plasma and radiation and materials) and kindly provided for comparison purposes gives satisfactory agreement.     

Electric Instability in <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-CdTe:In Layers with <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-Shaped Voltage-Current Characteristics

A switching of the S-type in the 20–200 μm thick polycrystalline n-CdTe:In layers with resistance of 10³–10⁶ Ω·cm is studied. The electric instability in the layers is found to be due to the electron-thermal breakdown mechanism. The dependence of the switching threshold parameters on the intensity of exposure can be used for fabrication of infrared-radiation controlled electric switches on the basis of n-CdTe:In layers. __________ Translated from Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii, Fizika, No. 6, pp. 28–30, June, 2005.     

Liquid-phase noncatalytic butene oxidation with nitrous oxide

The kinetics and mechanism of noncatalytic liquid-phase oxidation of but-1-ene and but-2-ene with nitrous oxide in a benzene solution in the temperature range from 180 to 240°C were studied. Oxidation proceeds via the 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition mechanism to form carbonyl compounds. Both of these reactions occur with close rates and activation energies and have the first orders with respect to the alkene and N₂O. A considerable fraction (39%) of but-1-ene involved in oxidation undergoes cleavage at the double bond yielding propanal and an equivalent amount of methylene, the latter producing ethylcyclopropane and cycloheptatriene. The oxidation of but-2-ene proceeds with a minimum bond cleavage and affords methyl ethyl ketone with 84% selectivity. Regularities of the oxidation of terminal and internal alkenes C₂—C₈ with nitrous oxide were analyzed using the previously published data. __________ Published in Russian in Izvestiya Akademii Nauk. Seriya Khimicheskaya, No. 4, pp. 925–933, April, 2005.